Thanksgiving snow forecast: Will foul weather affect travel?

Travel could prove challenging and the best seats for the New York Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade 2024 may be in your living room as storms threaten to bring chaos to much of the nation during the long holiday weekend.
In the West, heavy rain and snow chances increase on Tuesday as “another atmospheric river event arrives” across parts of central California, the National Weather Service said in a Sunday forecast.
Not all the holiday weather news is bad. The Pacific Northwest, which has played host to a series of surly atmospheric rivers and a bomb cyclone in recent days, should finally quiet down, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tyler Roys told USA TODAY on Sunday as that national weather picture for the holiday grew sharper.
“It would be a mixed score for the country if I were to give it a score,” Roys said. “There certainly will be areas of concern.”
Among the most pressing of those will be Denver International Airport, where snowfall could delay travelers heading in and out on what should be one of the biggest airline travel days of the year. Roys said the current forecast calls for 1-3 inches of snow Wednesday, not an overwhelming amount for the Mile High City but probably enough to cause flight delays.
Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Ohio, and Nashville, Tennessee, all could see snow or rain that could snarl flight and vehicle traffic, Roys said.
Anything that jams up flights would be coming at a historically bad time. The Transportation Security Administration said last week it expects to see its busiest Thanksgiving travel period on record, estimating its agents will screen 18.3 million people from Tuesday through Dec. 2. That would represent a 6% increase from 2023.
Passenger volumes have reached record highs in 2024, with an increase of 17% since 2022, the TSA said in a statement. TSA Administrator David Pekoske said the 10 busiest travel days in TSA’s history have all occurred in 2024, adding that “we anticipate that trend to continue.”
Some areas will see plenty of snow. Ahead of the long weekend, 7 to 10 feet of the white stuff could fall in the next couple days in parts of the Sierra Nevadas. Travelers may need to wait for the storm to pass, Roys said.
“Any travelers trying to get through Donner Pass on Monday and Tuesday may find it to be very difficult,” Roys said. “After that, other than some showers in Los Angeles, there should be some very good travel conditions in the West.”
Parts of the interior Northeast will see snow Thursday, but coastal cities from Boston down to Washington, D.C., appear poised to receive only rain. Black Friday could see lake-effect snow taking its toll in places such as Grand Rapids, Michigan, South Bend, Indiana, Syracuse, New York, and Erie, Pennsylvania.
“Early indications are that it could be a significant snowfall,” Roys said. “In some place we can’t rule out at least a foot of snow, although it will be very localized.”
That is troubling news given AAA projects 79.9 million people will travel 50 miles or more from their home for Thanksgiving between Tuesday and Monday, Dec. 2. That represents 1.7 million more travelers than last year and 2 million more than in 2019.
“Thanksgiving is the busiest holiday for travel, and this year we’re expecting to set new records across the board, from driving to flying and cruising,” said Stacey Barber, Vice President of AAA Travel.
Low gas prices are expected to literally fuel the record travel, with the national average possibly dropping below $3.00 for the first time since 2021.
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Sorry, there aren’t many great deals on flights this time of year. The holiday season is an extremely popular time to fly, and airlines take advantage of that to boost fares and make some money. It’s basic supply and demand. That said, it’s not all doom and gloom for winter travel. A little flexibility can help you get, if not good, at least better prices. And of course, at other times of year, great flight deals abound. But it may already be too late to salvage a deal on flights for Christmas, experts say.
“The reality is that when travelers are booking holiday fares, they’re often booking pretty last minute and booking for the most popular departure and return dates,” Hayley Berg, lead economist at online booking platform Hopper, told USA TODAY.  “What we recommend is starting the planning process for the holidays early, expecting to book both Thanksgiving and Christmas trips in October.” Read more here.
− Zach Wichter
The details of the storm remain unclear, but wind gusts in excess of 20 mph are possible from the Tennessee Valley to the Virginia coastline and into the Northeast. That number isn’t overly excessive, but could bring havoc to the big parades planned for New York City, Philadelphia and elsewhere, AccuWeather warned.
“Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York looks to be quite wet,” Roys said. “It will be worth watching to see if it gets so windy that they can’t put the balloons out.”
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The weather pattern through the rest of the extended holiday weekend is a crapshoot. A fast-tracking system could open the door for drier weather by the weekend after Thanksgiving − but if the storm crawls, it could linger several days along the Northeast coast, AccuWeather said. That could snarl air and highway traffic again as holiday travelers make their way home.
“We just have to watch how the storm evolves,” Roys said.
Contributing: Alexa Juliana Ard