Tropical Depression 19 forms in Caribbean Sea, expected to become Sara

TAMPA, Fla. – Tropical Depression 19 has formed and is expected to soon become Tropical Storm Sara, but the National Hurricane Center says there’s a chance it won’t reach hurricane strength.
As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the system was located at 15.7N and 82.6W. It had maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and was moving west over the Caribbean Sea at 14 miles per hour.
The NHC expects the disturbance to bring life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to parts of Central America as it meanders over the next few days.
The system that’s expected to become Sara could make landfall twice, which would weaken the storm before moving into the Gulf if the forecast holds.
Models show the wave interacting with land over Honduras, according to the NHC, which would weaken the system since it would no longer sit over the deep warm water of the Caribbean Sea.
Next Monday, it could make landfall again in the Yucatán Peninsula, moving northwest over portions of Belize and Mexico.
If that track holds, FOX 13 meteorologist Dave Osterberg says the disturbance would likely enter the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, possibly remaining a tropical storm.
Models show the disturbance that’s expected to become Sara moving toward Florida during the mid-to-late portion of next week.
Once it reaches the Gulf, conditions are much less conducive for further intensification. From there, an area of high pressure will build to the north of the system and an eastward “sweep” over Florida is expected.
“By the time it gets here, given this forecast, there’s not going to be much left to it,” Osterberg said. “It just gets pulled apart by these upper level winds, and it’s just a big wet mess.”
Models show the system moving toward Florida next week, but likely not as a hurricane.
Any rain or wind from the system would move over Florida during the mid-to-late portion of next week, according to Osterberg.
The system will bring higher rain chances to Florida next week.
It is worth noting that the forecast could see more changes over the next few days, so the disturbance will be worth watching through the weekend and into next week.
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